Gaza, Sazan and the new theory of international relations

Luxury waterfront resorts and new borders

Europe sleepwalks. Few fully realise the implications of the Machtergreifung of Trump and Musk and speak up against the new fascism. Others could use the Machtergreifung and follow his path - with severe consequences for Europe.

Gaza, Sazan and the new theory of international relations

If somebody would have said a few years ago that a president of the United States would like to annex Canada, occupy or buy Greenland and Panama Channel or occupy the Gaza Strip to develop a sea-side resort there and expel the people living there, he would have been declared a mad man. The same would happen, if somebody would say now that an U.S. President would support re-drawing of borders in Europe.

However, already in 2019 a mad man named Trump was talking about taking Greenland and already in 2018 Trump went mad after the Trump clan lost the property rights of the Trump Ocean Club International Hotel and Tower in Panama. In 2020, reliable rumours said that the then Trump’s Special Envoy for Kosovo-Serbia negotiations, Grenell was agreeing with the then President of Kosovo, Thaci and President of Serbia Vucic about a land swap between Kosovo and Serbia. In 2024 Trump’s son-in-law Kuchner stated that Gaza's waterfront property could be very valuable and suggested that Israel should move people out and clean it up.

Now this mad man is president of the United States again, experimenting together with Musk and some oligarchs how to introduce a 21^st century fascism. At the same time, he is turning international relations into backroom deal-making based on threats, cheats and lies, combined with stunning approaches in conflict resolution and all complemented with trying to make his clan rich.

When I read the first time about Trump’s recent proposal to expel the Palestinians from Gaza and that the U.S. should take it over to build a mediterranean seaside resort, I have thought what an innovative cynic way of conflict resolution. When two subordinates are fighting about something, the bully just takes it all and the fighting will stop. Then, three bells were ringing in my head. One rang in Ukrainian, one in Albanian and one in Serbian.

Ukraine makes a deal with Trump: if Ukraine can successfully reconquer the temporarily occupied territories from Russia with U.S. support, it grants the rights to reconstruct Ukraine, including luxury sea-side resorts at the Black Sea, to the Trump clan. And Musk and the other oligarchs can get the rare earth elements they need. “Innovative conflict resolution”.

But from Ukraine to Albania and Serbia: The Trump clan via Trump’s son-in-law Kuchner, the one who talked first about the valuable Gaza waterfront, is already involved in property projects in Albania and Serbia. The Trump clan got the permission to build a luxury seaside resort on the non-inhabited Albanian island Sazan in the Mediterranean Sea which is located in a natural protection area. In Serbia the Trump clan can build parts of the ugly luxury waterfront project in Belgrade.

I guess the Trump clan will not be the only one profiting from these projects but when thinking about what this all could mean, I could hear more bells ringing. This time they came from the past, from 2020 and 2021.

In 2020, the first Trump administration staged a ridiculous game with Richard Grenell as the main actor. Grenell, part of the Trump investment clan, was then playing the role as ambassador to Germany and as Trump’s Special Envoy for Kosovo-Serbia negotiations. There were more than rumours that he agreed with President Vucic in Belgrade and the then President of Kosovo, Thaci on the exchange of territories between Serbia and Kosovo. Northern Kosovo will become part of Serbia and parts of Southern Serbia would become part of Kosovo. A prelude for changing borders all over the Western Balkans.

Then in 2021 when the new Biden administration was already in place, a non-paper was published during the EU Presidency of Slovenia, then governed by the right-wing populist Janša. The non-paper was proposing to redraw borders in the Western Balkans, creating a Greater Serbia, a Greater Albania and a Greater Croatia complemented with a small Bosniak enclave.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo would have just disappeared. Bosniaks, Macedonians, Roma, Montenegrins, Gorani and all other people in the Western Balkans who are neither ethnic Albanians nor ethnic Serbs nor ethnic Croats or who didn’t want to live in a tiny Muslim enclave wouldn’t have had a place to live.

In international relations according to Trump or Mearsheimer, these countries or people are not relevant. The global bullies or their subordinate local bullies are the ones who count. In the Western Balkans, the local, strong bullies are nationalists.

For Serb nationalists Montenegrins don’t exist. They are Serbs and Montenegro belongs to Serbia just as the Republika Srpska, the Serbian-ruled part of Bosnia and Herzegovina. For Croat nationalists the parts of Herzegovina with a Croat majority are a part of Croatia. For Albanian nationalists in Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia all territories inhabited dominantly by Albanians belong to a “Greater Albania”. Anybody left?

Bulgaria would not mind the disappearance of North Macedonia or of Macedonians, since for Bulgarian nationalists they are Bulgarians anyhow and with exception of the “Albanian part”, the rest of North Macedonia should belong to Bulgaria. Neither would Greece mind, if Northern Macedonia would disappear from the map, it was fighting for decades against that the northern neighbour is called Macedonia.

Hungary wouldn’t mind either. Orban is a strong supporter of Vucic and Dodik. Hungary is increasing its influence in its new Hinterland and is cooperating politically and economically with the autocrats and oligarchs in the region. Beyond this they know that any step towards creating a new Western Balkans along the principle “one ethnicity, one territory” brings the Hungarians in Carpathian Basin a step closer to their brothers in Hungary (about sisters they don’t talk).

Most of the nationalist politicians and oligarchs in the region – with exception of Prime Minister Kurti in Kosovo – are ideologically close to Trump and are trying to please him. Now with the new fascism of Trump and Musk in place, the bully wins it all and weak countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Montenegro could be losers not worth the support of Trump.

I don’t know, if Trump would support the idea, if it gets back on the table and give Grenell who is now his envoy for special missions, green light to destroy the fabric of the Western Balkans and to strengthen his local bullies. Looking at his attitude to international relations and his way of conflict resolution and at his intention to weaken Europe, it is not out of question. And Grenell is already meddling into Balkan politics, fighting Kosovo’s Prime Minister Kurti who objects the land swap. And waterfront resorts are already being built in Serbia and Albania, but as long as new property development contracts for the Trump clan aren’t signed, we don’t know.

However, it would be even enough to bring the topic back on the table to achieve a destabilising effect on Europe.

Who would stand up against it? The Bosniaks, the Montenegrins and the Macedonians would stand up. But who cares about them and who would support them?

The European Union would held emergency meetings and after long internal discussions call upon all parties to refrain from violence. It can hardly do more. Putting up sanctions against the countries and individual politicians? Threatening with the end of the accession process?

It doesn’t have the tools and the guts to stop such a process in case it would happen. Moreover, EU Politicians like Orban, Fico, Babis, Kickl, Meloni, Le Pen, Wilders, Weidel and others might even support the re-drawing of borders and the creation of (ethnically pure) nation-states as they support everything weakening the EU and promoting “purity of their nations”. Which position would the EU Member State Croatia take? The nationalists are dreaming of Greater Croatia.

The European Union might even have to consider recognising such a development, if it doesn’t want to lose its influence in its own Hinterland. The European Union has anyhow lost its leverage in the Western Balkans some time ago, still riding the dead horse accession process. At the end, the EU might continue pumping in money to feed the oligarchs and will claim regularly in meetings that certain standards have to be observed. Their main fear will be that refugees and migrants would come.

I guess nobody expects that China or Russia would object such a redrawing of borders in the Western Balkans or that the international military forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina or in Kosovo would use force when the U.S. and some countries of the EU would support the re-drawing of borders.

Some might say “ethnic cleansing” in the 21^st century in Europe isn’t possible. 30 years ago, the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina ended with ethnic cleansing prior to the peace agreement and accepting and fostering it with the peace agreement. Did somebody care except the people who were expelled and whose relatives were killed?

This doomsday scenario illustrates how Europe continues to sleepwalk. Few of the ones who realise the implications of the Machtergreifung of Trump and Musk speak up against the new fascism. The majority, however, either pretends that things are never as bad as they seem or naively thinks the checks and balances in the U.S. will work and that the U.S. remains a democratic country in future.

A third growing group, partly admiring the fascist way of the Machtergreifung without having the balls doing it the same way, is full in-line with Trump and Musk. They hope to be a part of the game and to get a piece of the cake. They are watching with pleasure how Trump, Musk and other oligarchs turn the former U.S. into their private property, how they break laws and destroy the old system introducing fascism without experiencing any serious resistance.

The Orban clan and its oligarchs in Hungary or Mr. Vucic and his oligarchs in Serbia restricted checks and balances or media freedom quite some time ago and turned their respective countries Hungary and Serbia into their private property where they can threat, cheat and lie to whomever they want.

The Machtergreifung of Trump and Musk retroactively legitimises their practice in the past. Moreover, the Machtergreifung will encourage them to continue and others to jump on the train. Orban and Vucic are joined by Dodik, Fico, Babis, Kickl, Meloni, Le Pen, Wilders, Weidel, Rama, Plenkovic and others, since most of them share the “same values” and/or expect to profit from it. So why not to change borders and annex parts of another country?

I am not saying that it will happen, but similar to the scenario described in What Greenland has to do with Transylvania, we have to be aware that there are countries, institutions and individuals that propagate and support the re-drawing of borders in Europe in order to weaken Europe. And the EU doesn’t have the tools to stop them.